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Jones vs Machida Fight Predictions and Odds:
Wow, I have to tell you from the very start that this is, for me personally at least, the most exciting fight this year. Lyoto “the Dragon Machida is fighting Jon “Bones” Jones in the light heavyweight division. I will also say this: whatever you do, don’t bet on this fight. I’ll try to give you my best predictions combined with solid reasons, but you should never ever bet on a fight where Lyoto Machida is one of the opponents.
Let’s start with some background first. Machida is coming off a win against Randy Couture. He KO-d him with a front kick. But, I don’t think Randy Couture is relevant any more, so I don’t know if this is the true comeback of Machida. The two fights before this one were losses (Rampage and Rua). This generally shows you that Machida can be dealt with. The best way to deal with Machida is to be very aggressive and technical stand up fighter. Mauricio Rua has shown us how aggression and precision do work out against Lyoto’s unorthodox Karate style.
On the other side of the octagon we have Jon Jones. I don’t think that there’s much to say about him really. Jones is one of the best fighters of all time already, at least in my opinion. His vast array of kicks, punches, devastating wrestling and unpredictability simply make him one of the most complete, if not the most complete fighters in the UFC (and MMA in general). He’s beaten every relevant guy in the light heavyweight division so far. Every one, except Machida.
One of the reasons that this fight is so hard to predict is the very unpredictability of both of them. I don’t think that Machida’s style is good for Jones. Lyoto Machida’s Karate, counter striking and take down defense generally are all “hard counters” to Jon Jones. Don’t get me wrong, I think that Jones has good stand up (elbows and kicks, punches…erm not so much), but Machida will undeniably counter his style with a fast “get in- get out” approach. Since Jones is not a brawler by nature (unlike Rampage or Shogun), I don’t think that he will be able to reavh Lyoto’s head. This will lead to a frustration, and Jones will find himself frustrated for the first time in his career. Which leads me to my second point.
The second point I wanted to make is the fact that we don’t know how great of a warrior heart Jon Jones truly has. I mean, he has beaten all of his opponents with great ease. He literally made all of them look like some kind of MMA rookies. But, what if the fight prolongs and not everything goes as planned for him? If anyone can usurp Jones’s plans, it’s Lyoto Machida. If anyone can make Jones work hard for his money, it’s definitely Lyoto Machida. Heck, if anyone can defeat Jones in the light heavyweight division at this point – it’s definitely Lyoto Machida. We have a chance for the first time to see how Jones handles the pressure. This is the only thing about him that hasn’t been tested as of yet.
However, when that UFC 140 fight night comes (on December 10th 2011, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Ontario), all of the thing that I’ve written here can become completely irrelevant. Jones can make Machida look like another rookie simply by overpowering him in the first round and by finishing it by the end of the second. He could probably take him down and elbow him to death, we don’t know (although I do think that Machida’s take down defense is good enough to stop Jones from taking him down). All in all, I wouldn’t bet on this fight, ever. But if I have to say who will win this fight, I’m going with Machida by a KO in the second round.
Tell me what you think guys, I wanna know what you think about this fight. Feel free to post your thoughts here.
UPDATE: I just read the Jones vs Machida predictions on Bleacher Report and I would like to comment a bit on that. First of all, I’ve seen a trend of people giving Jon Jones a substantial advantage no matter who the opponent really is. I don’t think that that’s smart. First of all, Machida is probably the worst match up for Jon Jones. He has incredible take down defense, and I just can’t see Jon Jones going over that. I do agree that Machida’s strategy will be throwing kicks to slow Jones down, but I also think that Jones shouldn’t exchange punches with “the Dragon” since, he’s not as aggressive as Rampage or Shogun. I also watched the UFC 140: Jones vs Machida weigh in video, and it was nothing spectacular. They both have shown a great respect to one another by bowing.
I’m kinda sad that I didn’t have the time to cover other fights. This fight card is definitely crazy. Minotauro is facing Frank Mir and Lil Nog is facing Tito Ortiz. I hope I’ll be covering most of the fights on the main card in future time.
Jones vs Machida Fight Video Trailer:
Jones vs Machida Full Fight Coverage:
ROUND 1: Round 1 went to Lyoto in my opinion. Although it was generally a very boring round, he managed to land a few punches after his know “blitz rush”. Jones, on the other hand, landed a few low kicks , but that was about it. I think that this is the first round in the career of Jon Jones, where he didn’t win it.
ROUND 2: They both start slowly, but Jon Jones manages to hit a few punches, and then, in the middle of the round, all of a sudden, he takes Machida down. He hurts him with an elbow, and Machida starts to bleed. Machida gets back to his feet, but gets devastated with a short left hook in one of the clashes. While still on feet, Jon Jones pulls off a standing guillotine and puts Machida to sleep.
Jon “Bones” Jones defeats Lyoto “the Dragon” Machida via a guillotine submission in the second round.
Jones vs Machida Fight Video (Highlights):
What’s next for Jones and Machida?
Well, I think that Jon Jones really does deserve some rest. He’s definitely going to expect the outcome of Phil Davis vs Rashad Evans with curiosity. I think that they just might fight (Jones vs. the winner of the Favis vs Evans match up) in a six-month time.
As for Machida, I really don’t know. He might fight against someone like Forrest Griffin, but he just might fight against the loser of the Davis vs Evans too. It’s really hard for me to predict on what’s going to happen next, since Machida didn’ lose pretty much anything with this fight (except the light heavyweight title). We’ll just have to wait and see.
Jon Jones Post-Fight Interview:
Conclusion:
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I think that you’re right on this one. Many ppl will predict that this fight will be easy for Jones, but I also think that he’s going to get TKO-ed.However, I’m also afraid that Jones could dominate this one as he dominated all of his previous fights. We’ll just have to wait and see I guess.
Lol, I think that Jones is going to destroy this karate fool. I mean, how can you even doubt him when he’s never even been injured in his MMA career ?
You guys don’t have a clue what you’re talking about. I think that Machida is the worst possible opponent for Jon Jones. His counterstriking will enable him to destroy Jones on feet, and he won’t get taken down so easily.U have to take into account that Jones is not an aggressive brawler (great point in the prediction btw), so he won’t be able to stop Machida by KO-ing him fast.All in all, Machida wins.
Well, Im pretty disappointed by the performance of Machida, but at least he won the first round, and no one ever did that against Jones
Why are people saying that Machida destroyed Jones in the first round? LOL. He only took a few good punches and his chin endured. Jones was waaay to anxious because of the fact that he was fighting someone as unpredicatble as the “Dragon”. You have to learn your MMA people.